15,000 Housing Credit Soon To Make a Comeback?
As of June 10th lawmakers were trying to revive the $15,000 housing credit. Here’s a snip from a bloomberg.com[1] article:
“Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican, introduced a bill today that would increase the tax credit to $15,000 and remove income and other restrictions on who can qualify, according to his spokeswoman, Sheridan Watson. The Treasury Department declined to comment on the proposal.”
With the major increase in mortgage rates and the flood of foreclosures coming our way, I think the $15,000 credit revival is a necessity and not a nicety. March, April and May were the top 3 months ever in foreclosure activity and with summer already on its way those “pre-foreclosures” look like they’ll start coming out in seasonably slower times for selling.
Add on-top of the increase of foreclosures the near 1% gain in interest rates we have a perfect storm brewing to curb the entire housing recovery plan and sideline many first time home buyers.
Here’s some highlights to the 15k plan that is being pushed:
* Removal of Income Limit
* Increase time to qualify (1 Year from the day signed, it would not be retroactive). (Don’t ask what day it’ll be signed, because no one knows, and the treasury declined to comment)
* Would lower your tax liability, and would not be refundable if it was over your tax liability, and would be spreadable across 2 years.
* Remove first time home buyers restrictions (although this would be interesting, because would people who buy back their own short sales though internal bank processes be eligible for this? if so, that’d be bad).
It’d pretty much be allot like the previously senate approved $15,000 credit that I wrote about here
What would this bill do to the housing market? It would spur more interest in buying and have more people on the side-lines get up (myself included). It would better target the Jumbo loan market since the people that are in that market can take advantage of the full 15,000 drop in liabilities where as people in the lower range wouldn’t take advantage of the full 15,000, even over a 2 year period. (again re-read my original home buyer tax credit for description of how it works).
I can tell you one thing, the day I posted the $15,000 credit the number of hits on that compared to the $8,000 credit was 20 to 1, and even now with that bill long shut down i get FAR more hits on 15000 tax credit from Google then 8000 tax credit (just a thing to ponder, it really seems like that could be the amount people are looking for).
Lets hope.. that this gets approved since well we know the administration won’t let free market determine correct supply and demand pricing.
(1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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This will certainly get people buying. The only problem is that now people that were going to buy are waiting for it to come out and not buying anything. I hope they fast track it one way or another because who would buy a home if they knew they could just wait and get a large tax credit? Not me. By the way, my home has been for sale for over 2 years off and on with 75,000 in decreases and has had 1 very insulting offer. Live and learn.
Shelly,
I couldn’t agree more. I am currently in the process to look for a house and have already considered delaying any closing until after a definite answer is given on if the 15k will or will NOT be resurrected.
They need to fast track it, or give definite answer and kill any possible rumors. Another reason they need to work quick is because its typically the season to buy a house, and if they can really start mopping up inventories then banks to start putting more out there (this month has a huge number of trustee sales scheduled).
Is this really worth waiting for though? The current credit is $8k.. so this one would be an xtra $7k, however in the grand scheme of things would you want to risk $7k on a house you really like? An example: I put an offer of $315k on a house that’s listed for $330k.. I get counteroffer for $325k and instead of trying to counter that I accepted it knowing that it was still a good buy even though it is an extra $10k. Sure that is still a lot of money, but when spread out 30 years that’s not much really. But at least I got a nice house I want. All I’m saying is that unless there is an extremely high chance that it will pass soon, I would not hold out just or an extra $7k. My 2 cents
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@Ty
@Ty
Hey T,
There is def. an emotional factor when buying a house, and if it’s a house you love, then the 7k shouldn’t matter (that’s just causing higher inflation in the long run anyways right?).
I (as you may know) have an offer in on a house that I like dearly, and I would go through with the purchase even at the 8k return. If my closing date was say (1 week) prior to the passage of the bill (or possible signing) I would ask the bank to delay closing to qualify (if they said no, I’d probably hint of backing out, but if it came down to it I would probably go through with the process (since I’d lose earnest deposit and cost of inspections etc anyways).
The important thing is buying a place you love, in a range you can afford comfortably.
“Would lower your tax liability, and would not be refundable if it was over your tax liability, and would be spreadable across 2 years.”
-Correct me if I am wrong but the $8,000 credit IS refundable meaning we will get a check for the balance of the credit that is NOT owed to the IRS. Above mentions that this $15k credit will not be refundable which I am assuming means that we are not getting any cash in our hands out of this deal?
Please explain???
@RT
Yes, you are correct about the $8,000 credit… let me put it this way:
$8,000 Credit:
Tax Liability: $4,000
Tax Liability after credit: $4,000
Tax Paid: $4,000
Refund Amount: $8,000 (refund paid to you)
$15,000 Credit:
Tax Liability: $4,000
Tax Liability after credit: $0
Tax Paid: $4,000
Refund Amount: $4,000 (refund paid to you, but remember this is payable on 2 years)
You see, the max you can get is what you’ve already paid in taxes, as the $15,000 credit just lowers liability (so your liability after adjustments would be $0) and you’ll be eligible for all taxes you’ve paid in the year.
Please check out my original post on the 15k credit which explains in much more detail:
http://www.benkevan.com/blog/the-15000-home-buying-tax-credit-what-it-is-and-isnt/
Ben, Thank you very much for your help. From my understanding, in order to take advantage of a “non-refundable” tax credit, I would have to claim more allowances for my week to week paychecks, where as a “refundable” tax credit, I can end up having a tax liability of $0 at the end of the year and still collect the refund amount.
To me, if this were the case, I would rather just have the “refundable” $8000 tax credit as it stands now then have them expand it to the proposed “non-refundable” $15000 credit…
@RT
You look to be spot on.. Yes the $15k credit looks much better when you look at dollar valuation BUT many people don’t quite understand how the two differ.
I myself would like the $15k credit since I know across 2 reporting years I would be able to take full advantage of the full $15k. What I believe this really targets is the Jumbo loan market (not my market) where people would easily qualify for the full $15k.
it’s really a wolves in sheep’s clothing really, wish people would explain it a little better or do their own due diligence (like you did) and understand the difference and not look at the dollar volume.
Well again, I appreciate all your help. There are so many contingencies on these tax credits, it was really difficult for me to finally start understanding how it all works. I am buying my first home with my fiance and we are closing in July. I had asked my attorney, real estate agent & bank how the tax credit exactly works and I couldn’t get one answer from either of them. I guess because the stimulous package is so new that no one really knows unless it effects them. The $15k credit obviously looks better and is the better plan in the long run, I’m just not crazy about claiming more allowances and getting paid in dividends, I’d rather see it up front. If the $15k tax credit does pass and I qualify for it, I will just have to spend wisely
@RT
I am also on the cusps of buying my first house. A short sale I put an offer on in March was accepted on Friday and we’re awaiting the final paperwork to be delivered to the required parties to start de-winterization so we can go ahead with Inspections. The agreed upon date of closing is also in July (31st to be exact) and it’s a major step for me.
I’d like the $15k ebcause I don’t need the money up front, and knowing how much I’ve paid into taxes for the year will let me know how much I’ll get back as a refund (and I pay a crap load of taxes). I’ll then take that money and invest it adn hopefully get a nice return on it.
I’m buying well within my means so I’m not changing my W-4′s after buying and will just give the goverment a free loan (except for CA, I up’ed my allowences with them, because they are criminals that will just hold my refund like they did this prior reporting period)..
Glad I was able to help good luck on the closing process, and enjoy your new home and the money that will come along with it (it being the 8k or 15k credit, and thanks for visiting).
How soon will this go to the House?
@CarolLee
Ah Carol.. that’s the Million Dollar Question which isn’t yet known. With the last 2 reports of weekly home contracts / sales being pretty flat and disappointing when you consider this is “buying season”, I can’t imagine they would wait too much longer to publicly come out and endorse it going through the house (i would hope they did it in June / July to pick up sales before summer ended (June would def be ideal).
I feel that all persons who purchase a home in 2009 should qualify no matter if this is a first home or not. People who currently have homes will use the money to fix up the home purchased thus stimulating the economy. People who have purchased second homes this year maybe putting off the repairs until times get better. Give them the $15,000 (if purchased the home in 2009)so that the repairs and changes they want to make to the home can be done at this time, not some time in the future – thus stimulating the economy now. I feel that the homeowners should get a credit card to be used for the purchase of goods and services. This way no one can purchase, then return a product. If the product is returned, the credit goes to the card no to their pocket.
I did buy a second home and I am putting off the fix up of the home until a later date. Given the $15,000 credit I would fix the house up now. Thus giving the trades people work. Do not limit who gets the credit, give the credit to everyone purchasing a home or second home and let’s get this ecomony rolling – we need it…..
@Darlene M Groves
I agree but disagree. You can’t say “just give it to anyone” because people who own will buy and allow other to go into foreclosure, or people will “re-buy” their own houses in short sales and take advantage of this, and those initial “NOD” claims would really hurt the markets, which in turn would make Consumer Confidence suffer.
I DO think it should be for everyone WITH some clauses, and those being that it must be paid back IF you sell ANY property within 3 years, and it must be paid back in full (anything that has been claimed at least).
I think for the ease of simplicity they slapped on “first time home buyers” to really get the bill into place, and I sure hope they’ve been considering a wider aspect of coverage, because I can tell you now that first time home buyers will soon run out, and foreclosures are still out-pacing purchases.
However, this administration seems to be “secretive” and not put everything like this “out on the table”.
Thanks for the comment Darlene, it was a great one.
But yes.. I agree that it should be for everyone and not just first time home buyers, just with some type of restriction to close loopholes like foreclosing and buying back and taking advantage of the credit etc.
@ben.kevan
Darlene,
I disagree with you if you sell any property it must be paid back. There are people like us that would greatly benefit from the package and not being first time home buyers.
Our situation is, my husband lost his job in April 2009 and the only job he could find is out of state. We are currently in MI and his new job is in Buffalo NY. We have only lived here in MI for about 3 years and relocated here for my husbands work. We have to fix up our house in order to sell. What equity we have gained in the house has been lost by housing prices sinking, especially here in MI where you can see 5 houses for sale on one block. So, we have to sell this house before winter (ya right) and buy a new one.
This bill would help us so much in the fact that maybe our house would sell quicker and help us purchase our new home. I was pretty disappointed when the tax credit was only offered to first time home buyers. If we had to pay any of it back, it would set us back financially for a long time.
Just my opinion.
@Jennifer Marroquin
Ah.. Jennifer that’s an interesting point there and something that could make things hard. I guess selling if you’re in default, or you go into default on any of the houses you own and are required to sell (to bank, or short sale) to pay the accepted back.
I also live in an area that has been hammered (realtytrac.com rated the city 8th worse in the country last month, that being Vallejo-Fairfield, CA) so I know how it is.
Man.. re-thinking about it.. I think they took the “first time home buyers” as an easy way out, because saying it can be for everyone can really cause some interesting situations, here are some I can think of:
1.) Someone buys, gets credit and lets first house get foreclosed
2.) Someone stops paying, bank agrees to sell house back to them as short sale, and they get credit (it’s considered a purchase)
3.) Someone has a reason for an Organic Sale (ie relocate for job), Buys a new house, gets credit
4.) Someone buys house (most likely upgrade), gets credit and sells their house organically (and are current on payments at the time of sale).
I guess the first 2 and the last 2 are on different ends of the spectrum, the first 2 are taking advantage of the credit whereas the second 2 are utilizing the credit to better your position.
An increase in organic sales from the bottom 2 scenario’s would boost confidence in the markets as that number has been beat down to oblivion.
Quite the conundrum to ponder, I’ll have to think of more scenario’s and potential fixes (not like it’d be of any help, but just to better understand what restrictions the house may want to implement.)
Thank you much for your view Jennifer, it made me rethink what I considered “For all buyers”
This is a fabulous bill and I do hope it passes. Nothing would help our economy more than fixing the housing crisis and this $15,000 tax credit for all home buyers would go a long way towards doing that. If we fix housing, then we fix the economy. It’s not going to get any better in this country until we realize this and just get on with the business of doing it. So many families will benefit from getting our contractors and sub-contractors getting back to work – the trickle down/up effect is enormous for all aspects of our economy (restaurants, cars, retailers, industry, etc.). Let’s just hope that congress has the wisdom and courage to pass this very important bill and then sooner rather than much later we can all feel our lives improve.
@Joyce Haynes
The only thing that worries me about the $15k bill without First Time Home Buyers restriction is the amount of money spent which will lead to later time inflation.
The government needs to stop worrying about companies that made bad investments, and worry about main street.
50B would take care of all the 15k credits needed to fix the economy, yet we give the 50B to GM, which has a horrible business model, and continues to lose way more money then it takes in. It’s not their first time down this road..
But I agree with trickle down economy, and think the MOST qualified individual that ran for president in the economic sense was Ron Paul, and his views of goverment, and fixing the economy would have brought us down a bit faster and harder, but recovery would have been much much faster, and there would have been no inflation worries like there are now (i’m not talking near term 3 – 9 monts, i’m talking mid term 2 – 4 years).
Thanks for your views Joyce, I also think it would be helpful and wish the Administrator would say yes or no either way about the bill.
I just heard from my realtor that they passed a $8,000 tax credit or something similar for new and NOT new home buyers. I also got a much better offer on my home today. Coincidence? Let me know what you hear about this.
I just heard from a friend of mine that a $15,000 tax credit has passed through Congress and is on it’s way to the House. My wife and I are purchasing our first home on the 31st of July. It seems that the 15,000 credit is a bit different from the 8,000 tax credit. To my understanding from our Mortgage Consultant that after Settlement I may file a amended tax return and receive the 8,000 tax credit four to six weeks after settlement whereas, the 15,000 tax credit is spanned out over two years. Also, my wife is a nursing student 8 months out of the year. Could I change my W4′s with my employer to receive a little more each paycheck and still be in the plus during tax time? Am I wrong about the 15,000 credit? Thanks for your help.
@Bob
Yes, raising the allowences on your W-4 will allow you to get the money immediately and is the way to go so the government doesn’t get some massive free loan from you (I found this out the hard way with California withholding my refund for 2 months).
I haven’t heard that the tax credit passed Congress, only the global warming bill. I’ll check with some resources to see if passing of Congress has indeed happened.
Thanks for the questions, let me know if you have any more.
@Shelly
Nothing was passed and signed by the President.
[...] and do some more reading. Stop wasting my time! Here you go my friend for latest news on this 15,000 Housing Credit Soon To Make a Comeback? | Ben Kevan's Blog var [...]
Hi. I like the way you write. Will you post some more articles?
any updates? I am expecting to close mid-august, I would not qualify with existing income celing or as a first-time buyer both of which however, I understand may be removed as restrictions if/when passed.
any updates? any good guesses?
@Tom
Hi Tom (also put this reply in my Ask Ben section)
My best guess is that the $15,000 credit will be put in place after the historically high seasonal demand period. The summer time has higher demand, and with decreased inventory (due to moratoriums) prices have edged upward thus providing a “false bottom” in the market. While demand has increased and inventories have decreased during the summer months, the need for “stimulus” decreases.
Now when this demand decreases, and the supply again increases (the houses are there, and ready to be moved onto the markets) then another increase in incentives will most likely get more backing and get better steam.
Until this false bottom finishes I don’t see an increase or change in the Housing Credit. With that said, I expect the end of summer to be a hard time for the housing markets and a time where we’ll see increased supply, decreased demand ( seasonal data ) and again downward pressure on prices (based on Supply and Demand).
The other variable will always be rates. If rates increase too much then prices will have further to fall to keep the afford-ability index at a level where houses were selling well. If rates sink (which IMO would be caused by a steep decline in the US Equities market) then increase buying and refinancing and loan restructures would take place.
But as of now.. it’s not going anywhere..
Most of you think this is a good idea, but in reality it is not, and here’s why. First, i live in one of the hardest hit areas for the housing market, Las Vegas. Many people i know are walking away from there houses just because they are so far upside down, i’ve heard others say the 8,500 tax credit now makes them want to walk away and why? well know one is helping those of us who are upside down. The banks are not modifying the loans you can’t refiance so lets give first time buyers a huge gift why those of us stuck get nothing!
Secondly, when you have a neighbor move in next to you who paid 125,000 and you paid 350,000 and oh by the way here is 8,500 tax credit for the 125,000 we will have so many foreclosures here in Vegas it will be a disaster. Just so you know i’m not some bitter homeowner who is stuck, i’m one of the lucky ones who bought back in early 20002 before the boom began. If homeowners here in Vegas and other parts of the country hard hit by this mortgage disaster do not get help, i fear a 15,000 tax credit will be to much to bear for distressed homeowners and cause the situation to become even worse.
@Jeff
Hi Jeff,
The credit is def a double edged sword. Also, to say that “help to those underwater” is not available is incorrect. There are many services that are out there to help, it’s just reaching out, and trying to get the modifications (although the Loan to Value should be adjusted to something like 125 – 130%.
The incentive is really to up the First Time Home Buyer %. Because if credit was for anyone, then people would walk away just to buy.
I think the problem really is the banks. The current administration has had their book values “softened” so much, that when these banks do loan modifications or sell a distressed home they are moving from an off-balance sheet “non-performing asset” to a realized loss, which hurts their investors. I think too much is being done to protect these banks and their book values. (why do you think foreclosures are at records, and inventories have been falling at a far greater pace? because M2M suspension supports peak values and not current values thus inflating their assets, which lessens their loss %). There is good news, starting reporting periods AFTER Nov 15th (lets hope this doesn’t change) banks will be required to put more on their books from their off-balance sheet losses. This will better show the insolvency of our financial system and take the smoke and mirrors that has been given to the country. I have no trust in our banking system, and think our administration should be dis-appointed that they are protecting them at this level (giving them tax payer money while they claim record profits).
You know the government has said we are “out of the recession”, but with a decreasing housing outlook. If this was a housing and credit led recession, and credit card, mortgage, equity lines of credit are all at RECORD levels, how can the country have gotten out of a recession? The logic isn’t there, and I’m not buying it..
But yeah.. man what a blab this comment was.. I agree, it’s bad in a sense (for the ones that believe they should get something), but worse in the sense that it’ll push inflation (which again the government says is under control). I think they’ve over corrected the deflation and inflation will be quite rampant in about 4 – 5 years, and even worse if the Health Care Reform in its current form is passed.
You are right about the help to current homeowners, Nevada just passed a law as of July 1 where banks have to meet with homeowners in person with a mediator to try to work out an agreement. Now will have to wait a couple of months to see and hear from people who have done this and if it helps. If it does other states might want to try it. But as you mentioned above the real problem is the banks, so i’m not sure i want to hold my breath thinking this might help.
Maybe most folks, including senators, don’t think this through as thoroughly as I think I have. So here is a predicament. Let’s say I do not get the full advantage of the $15,000 and the $8,000 is more beneficial to me. If my annual tax liability is less than $7,500 ($15,000 /2 years) and since the $15,000 is a NON-REFUNDABLE credit, that means that I would want to postpone deductions for future years if I can. So in other words, the motivation for charitable giving declines because there is no tax benefit (not that this is the only reason to give to charity). From strictly a tax standpoint, I would be better off saving what I was going to contribute to charity for two years, while I take advantage of the $15,000 as much as possible, and then on the third year make a larger than normal charitable contribution. Sometimes I don’t think these guys think through the consequences, but didn’t we all really already know that.
Mark,
You are using an instance where someone is really close to the income limit (or below to make the most out of it). But the fact the 15k credit (since it also removes the upper income limit) indicates to me that it’s ment to target the jumbo loan market where those peoples liabilities are well above that limit (even with current write offs etc).
A reason I think they want to include that group is because jumbo loans are failing at a faster rate then every before (if I recal correctly there was a 40 month supply of houses over 750k on the market.)
We’re not out of the woods and a double dip recession due to financial system rebalance (moving loans back onto the books), commercial real estate and jumbo loan failures (1 jumbo loan is like 3 regular foreclosures) the ripple effect can be devistating. My hope is that spending is slowed and the rate of inflation five years out isn’t massive.
I am just checking in to see if there has been any progress on passing this tax credit. My husband and I are first time buyers and we dont want to shoot ourselves in the foot taking the $8,000 credit only to lose out on $7000 more. Is there any hope of the larger amount passing anytime soon? Thanks!
@Judith
Hi Judith,
As I’ve commented before I do NOT think that this bill will be passed while leading economic indicators are pointing to a recovery. Although I personally think the housing market is at a false bottom and NOT in recovery mode.
Also, with the worries of Inflation, and other Countries that hold our bonds questioning our spending we may never see it passed.
On another note.. something to watch for is increased rates sooner the originally expected. The good “economic indicators” is a double edged sword as fewer people will go into treasuries and more into equities.
If you’re rate protected with a floating option.. I hope you’ve locked prior to the re-prices for the worse today as MBS’s were slammed pretty hard.
And taking $8,000 is quite good, esp since the $15k details haven’t been sorted and could be WORSE then the $8k (i.e. a Loan)
I bought a house june 24, will I quailfy.
I have heard, if you buy a house in 2009 you quailfy. I have also read it does not start until they sign. Which one is right
@matt
Hi Matt,
Which legislation are you commenting on? The $15,000 or the $8,000? You will qualify ONLY for the $8,000 (as long as you meet the requirements) UNLESS for some reason they change the current wording of the non signed $15,000 bill to be retroactive for the year.
With that said and in easier normal terms you will (as long as you meet the income / first time home buyer etc etc) qualify for the $8,000.
It’s just not fair.My Husband brought a for-closure home.But I have owned a home in the past three years.Even though he is a first time home buyer,I was not.Now we have only been married three years.But we do not quaifity for the 8,000 because IRS counts married couples as one.So we have this home that needs a lot of work,and we have no money.We were told he would get the 8,000,before we closed on the house,but we found out the next week we could not.So we are praying and hoping that the 15,000 comes Thru.Thank You
could someone please give us an update on the $15K housing credit?
Let me get this straight
The $8k tax credit is refundable, therefore you will get the full amount..
The $15K is not refundable and is paid over 2 years at $7500 each year?????
Sorry, Im so confused… I don’t know if i should wait it out… “IF” the $15k bill goes through does that mean I’ll get up to a refund of a $15k tax credit paid over 2 years?
Which deal is better? $8K or $15k? thank you… sorry to ask questions that you’ve already heard/read about… thanks for any help…
Hi Maria,
Not being refundable means the most you’ll receive back is your tax liability.
If you paid 8k in taxes, and had a tax liability of 7000 (without buying a house) you would receive a 1000 refund. However, with the 15k tax credit, your tax liability would be moved to 0 (since it’s under 15k) and you’d receive your full 8000 that you’ve paid in taxes.
I see, the biggest difference is the tax liability…
So if I find a house this year, I can amend my 2008 taxes and get up to $8K tax credit… I meet the requirements. Loan approved for $xxx amount.
But if i buy next year and the $15k tax credit passes, I’ll get only up to whatever my tax liability will be? is that correct?
You are correct.. The current $8,000 credit can exceed your tax liability whereas the proposed $15,000 credit will not exceed your liability but could be pushed out for 2 years. (Since I would have qualified for the full $15k, I would have liked the second option, but I just closed on my house and have amended my taxes for the $8k credit.).
It’s going to be interesting to see what they do with the $8k credit come expiration time on Dec 1st. Will they extend it? Will they modify it?
Yes, thats what i’m going to wait on… i was going to buy a house, but with car repairs that were a few thousands, i would not have had enough for the closing costs… down payment yes… but what we realized was that, we would not have had enough money to fix the house if we got it and no money for new furniture and so on… I wasn’t going to do what so many people have done in buying a house for the sake of just having one… what people need to understand is that you always have to be able to maintain the house for repairs and whatever unexpected costs that may arise… So for my case I think its best to save the money and wait.. besides we have good credit and will qualify again. it just would have been nice to have gotten the $8K tax credit… I want to make sure that when we buy, we can stay in it…
@maria
Maria,
You are a prime example of why the blame cannot be put on the “Lenders”. YOU made the responsible decision to not purchase a house and join the “so called American Dream”, because it would have put you in a financial hardship. You’ll see that the decision you made will make your immediate quality of life better.
I actually just closed on a house, and the only reason I purchased was because I felt that it was the perfect house for me, in a price range that was well within my budget. The $8k was not a factor for the simple fact that when the $8k credit expires, then house prices will adjust downward to compensate for the fewer buyers, and if Interest Rates go up soon (I expect in 4 years we’ll have quite high Interest Rates) then we’ll see housing prices again drop to level out the afford ability index. I would much rather buy a house at a lower price with higher interest rates, then high price and lower rate, but like I said.. the house was perfect for me and my family for our first house (location was the biggest deal and the area we moved into was only a 136 house tract).
I applaud you for your responsible financial decision Maria, and hope others start to realize that losing their houses is partly THEIR faults for a decision THEY made.
Also, housing will not be a V shaped recovery .. it’ll be more like an L .. dropped hard then flat while banks “drip out” their inventory.